Forecast Book
Settled

Sep 6, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC · California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, California

UCLA at California

Projected scoreUCLA 24California 23
Blind fair lineUCLA -0.5Range -7 to +6 home margin
Market at revealUCLA -1.5Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC
Model directionCalifornia +1.51-point fair-line midpoint difference; this is directional context, not a calibrated cover probability or verified betting edge.
Frozen official positionPass0 to win 0 · confidence none
Why v0.1 made this call

1-point midpoint difference was below the 1.5-point minimum. v0.1 genuine-toss-up veto: the fair range crossed zero and the absolute fair margin was 0.5 points (at most 1.5).

Exact-spread settlement

This half-point spread cannot push under standard full-game settlement.

v0.2 probability and classification work is retrospective research, excluded from official performance records and not an active recommendation.

Line-blind case

What drove the number

These assessments were committed before the market retrieval shown above. Roster confidence: Low.

Roster baseline

UCLA's B roster starts 2 points above California's B- roster. Both programs are researched and unranked, so neither receives tier points.

Quarterback

Nico Iamaleava's traits and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele's productive freshman season balance to no numeric quarterback adjustment.

Skill positions

UCLA's broader roster-talent ceiling earns a small edge over California's upgraded but still integration-dependent portal group.

Trenches & defense

Both dossiers require live proof: UCLA's prior pass rush was a major weakness, while California's trench structure is unproven under a new staff.

Staff & scheme

Bob Chesney's established coaching record earns UCLA a small edge over California's complete staff transition under Tosh Lupoi.

Continuity & integration

More than 40 UCLA transfers and more than 30 California transfers create comparable extreme integration loads.

Key drivers

  • UCLA's two-point roster-grade advantage
  • California's 2.5-point campus home field
  • Comparable quarterback upside
  • Extreme integration uncertainty for both new staffs

Failure conditions

  • Either new staff converts its large transfer class materially faster than the other
  • UCLA's defensive-line weakness persists despite the coaching reset
  • Sagapolutele or Iamaleava creates a decisive quarterback advantage absent from the stored evidence
Availability boundary

No confirmed game-specific absence is recorded in the repository evidence.

Final roles across both portal-heavy two-deeps and any late game-status changes are unresolved in stored evidence.

Blind receipt

Committed before reveal.

Forecast created Sep 3, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC. Market retrieved Sep 3, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC.

Methodology
forecast-book-v0.1
Anchor commit
341ffda
Market source
DraftKings via ESPN
SHA-256 blind payloadac000d3314e4f1f3e2db8365c06f647ad7d6aefcbb63afdaee9c2bb706aee0a5
View timestamped market source context