Line-blind case
What drove the number
These assessments were committed before the market retrieval shown above. Roster confidence: Moderate.
SMU's frozen No. 22 B roster holds a 2-point grade advantage and a 0.5-point rank-tier advantage over Florida State's researched, unranked B- roster.
Kevin Jennings' strong established play earns SMU an edge over veteran Florida State quarterback Ashton Daniels.
Duce Robinson and multipurpose back Samuel Singleton give Florida State a small skill-position counterweight.
Florida State's secondary concerns and SMU's secondary questions balance to no numeric adjustment.
Mike Norvell retains both coordinators, earning a small edge over SMU's redistributed coordinator responsibilities.
Florida State's staff continuity and already-stored Week 0 evidence provide a modest advantage over SMU's coordinator turnover.
Key drivers
- SMU's stronger roster-grade and quarterback baseline
- Florida State's coordinator continuity
- Florida State's 2.5-point home field
- Stored Week 0 evidence that showed adequate Florida State offense but permissive pass defense
Failure conditions
- Kevin Jennings consistently exploits Florida State's secondary concerns
- Florida State's two-year underperformance remains more predictive than the continuity adjustment
- SMU's new coordinator structure functions without the expected transition cost
No confirmed game-specific absence is recorded in the repository evidence.
Florida State's secondary health and all late game-status changes remain unresolved in stored evidence.